UFC 202 Preview

Published by

Alex Patterson

Another UFC Pay-Per-View is almost upon us and although its not the best card we've seen this year, the main event between featherweight champion Conor McGregor and Welterweight Nate Diaz has been highly anticipated in the last few months. Diaz got the win in the first encounter, so who comes out on top tomorrow. Lets go through the entire card from top to bottom and predict our winners.

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass)

Middleweight: Alberto Uda (9-1) vs Marvin Vettori (10-2)

Tough fight to call as both fighters have different skill sets. Uda has very good stand-up whereas Vettori is very good on the ground so expect him to go for the takedowns. A early knockout for Uda isn't out of the question but Vettori's ground game should get him the win

Prediction: Vettori by Unanimous Decision

Welterweight: Colby Covington (9-1) vs Max Griffin (12-2)

Griffin will be making his UFC debut in Vegas and possesses strong knockout power. Other than that, there isn't much to his game and Covington will be confident in picking up the win. I'll go Covington in three rounds.

Prediction: Covington by Unanimous Decision

Welterweight: Neil Magny (18-4) vs Lorenz Larkin (17-5)

The main event on UFC Fight Pass, both fighters have been on good runs. Larkin has improved dramatically since dropping down to Welterweight and the key to his game is his smart footwork. Being a tall fighter, Magny struggles when his opponent closes the distance so the key for him is to take this fight to the ground, however, Larkin's ground game isn't that bad so I expect Larkin to get the win here.

Prediction: Larkin by TKO in any round

PRELIMINARY CARD (Foxsports)

Women's Strawweight: Randa Markos (6-3) vs Cortney Casey (5-3)

Markos's recent run has been marred by two successive losses, however, she has fought the best fighters in the division and she should be confident heading into this bout. Casey is the more powerful of the two fighters but Markos has the experience that should see here pick up the win.

Prediction: Markos by Unanimous Decision

Featherweight: Artem Lobov (11-12-1) vs Chris Avila (5-2)

Teammates of both Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz, this fight should be pretty interesting to watch. Both fighters cancel each other in terms of styles and with Lobov having the vaster experience, I expect the Russian to get the win in a back and forth fight.

Prediction: Lobov by Unanimous Decision

Women's Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington (7-5) vs Elizabeth Phillips (5-3)

Pennington has proven to be one the toughest fighters in the Women's Bantamweight division and while Phillips is yet to do the same, she is on the right path. A big component of Pennington's game is her work in the clinch and this where the fight will be won unless Phillips can get her to the ground, using her wrestling skills. Tough to see that happening though, Pennington on decision.

Prediction: Pennington by Unanimous Decision

Bantamweight: Cody Garbrandt (9-0) vs Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2)

The headline fight in the Prelims, young bantamweight fighter Cody Garbrandt has been on a tear and is undefeated in his MMA career thus far. The predictable thing to do is to pair him with an experienced fighter and that's exactly what Mizugaki is. Garbrandt should have too much pace and power for Mizugaki and I expect him to get a good win that will push him up the rankings in the division.

Prediction: Garbrandt by TKO in the Second Round

MAIN CARD (Main Event on Foxtel)

Welterweight: Tim Means (25-7-1) vs Sabah Homasi (11-5)

A welterweight matchup gets us going on the main card. This fight will come down to experience and preparation. Homasi took this fight on just two weeks' notice. Even with full camps, he is always susceptible to the finish. Means on the other hand has never been properly knocked out and has the ability to use his all-round game until Homasi tires. Means should get a stoppage.

Prediction: Means by TKO in the Third Round

Welterweight: Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1) vs Mike Perry (6-0)

Perry has the power to put away Lim, and Lim is there to be hit. However, he is also extremely durable. Lim is a more fluid striker than Perry at this point, letting his strikes flow freely, whereas Perry is a little more stiff and reserved with his offerings. Perry was knocked out at the bell in his last fight before returning in the second round to win. That means he is tough - but not tough enough to stay off the canvas against a puncher like Lim. The pick is Lim by a KO

Prediction: Lim by KO in the First Round

Welterweight: Rick Story (19-8) vs Donald Cerrone (30-7)

Another welterweight bout as we get closer to our main event. With his emphatic victory over a former middleweight in Cote, there is reason to believe that Cerrone can beat Story, another powerful welterweight with heavy hands. Story is more comfortable pressuring than Cote. Story is a better wrestler than Cote, happy to fight on the ground but perfectly content to hold his man against the fence and rip body shots in tight. Most crucially, Story is a southpaw. Of the seven men who have beaten Cerrone, only one was a full-time orthodox fighter. The man is vulnerable to lefties. Therefore, the pick is Story in a tight one.

Prediction: Story by Unanimous Decision

Light Heavyweight: Anthony Johnson (21-5) vs Glover Teixeira (25-4)

Our co-main event on the card sees a brilliant matchup between two of the best Light Heavyweight's in the division. Johnson seemed primed to take the light heavyweight division by storm, a remarkable feat for a man who once fought at the welterweight limit, but his run was halted by current champion Daniel Cormier. Teixeira is a perfect opponent to test Johnson's current mental state. Like Johnson, Teixeira is a power puncher with underrated defense. Like Johnson, Teixeira likes to stalk his opponents before countering their attacks.

If Teixeira presses the action and survives the early rounds, he could take some of the “Rumble” out of Johnson's game. He will need to get past the whirlwind of Johnson's knockout blows to do this, however, and only Cormier has successfully outwrestled Johnson at light heavyweight. Johnson by TKO is the pick, setting up a potential title shot against Cormier.

Prediction: Johnson by TKO in the Second Round

Welterweight: Nate Diaz (19-10) vs Conor McGregor (19-3)

This promises to be an absolute beauty. Ever since Diaz choked out McGregor at UFC 196 back in March there has only been one man that the Irishman wants to face instead of going down to Featherweight to defend his crown. Diaz beat him off two weeks notice and Conor is out for some serious revenge.

Diaz's win was no accident, however. Diaz may not be a real welterweight, but he is bigger than McGregor. In fact, he is the first man in McGregor's UFC career to enjoy a reach advantage against “The Notorious” one. Diaz is also skilled enough to use that reach advantage. Often confused with his older brother, Nick, his style is actually very different. He is something of a boxer-puncher, disciplined enough to pick his shots at long range but mean enough to press the action when the tide turns in his favor. Stopping that turn is the biggest challenge facing McGregor.

Simply put, McGregor cannot fight at Diaz's pace and expect to beat him, barring a sudden finish. To overcome Diaz's unorthodox boxing, McGregor will have to change some fundamental aspects of his style. The good news is that the blueprint exists: Diaz has been beaten 10 times before. The bad news is that the tactics with which Diaz has been beaten -- leg kicks and power wrestling - do not fall in McGregor's arsenal of tricks.

Diaz has a full camp under his belt this time, and all of the changes that McGregor may have made to his game plan will not change the fact that Diaz - longer, stronger and too damn tough - is and always will be a tough matchup for a man used to being the bigger and more powerful fighter. This one really could go either way, but the pick is Diaz by Submission.

Prediction: Diaz by Submission in the Fifth Round

Published by

Alex Patterson

8 years ago